Some Math behind DoN stategy and -EV plays

Many players who put in volume at the Ipoker 4max DoN games seem to play other games as well, typically 6 max superturbos. I believe that that players playing these other games also makes them lead to becoming much weaker DoN players because the games are so difficult when you look at them from a more in depth mathematical point of view.

The problem with playing DoNs against some weaker opponents is that these opponents can make a lot of plays that are –EV for both of you. Unlike most formats of SNGs, DoN games have a lot of certain plays (all in plays)  that are –EV for both players. I don’t think that many people take this into account enough during their decision making process. The reason for these –EV plays is that the most profit you can get from a DoN game is 2x your original buyin, whereas in a 6max SNG 1^st place typically will get around 4x the original buyin, this allows for more gamble to be profitable, a typical example would be an early stage all in with 1010-QQ vs AK which isn’t really too negative or positive EV for either player

Im going to explain some very standard –EV plays that many DoN players will make.

Many DoN strategies tell a player to play an EXTREMELY tight in the early stages of a game, because you don’t need to build a big stack you just need to still have chips and get into the money. While this is good beginning strategy it is smart to play hands early on where you are more capable of hitting huge flops and getting paid off a bit, an example would be limping suited connectors and low pairs, not only playing AQ-AK and 10s or better the way some beginning strategies will explain. By investing only 1bb which could be as low as 20 chips you get the opportunity to hit a big hand and get paid off, although you shouldn’t be playing every single suited connector and pocket pair you get, you need to play them in moderation to get paid off by the fish.

Also, what I often see is players underplaying hands like AA, KK, QQ early on in a DoN and not being able to let go of them when they probably know they’re behind on a really ugly board. AA and KK should be played relatively aggressively preflop, at 25/50 blinds if someone raises to 175 its not the worst plan to just auto ship KK because too many players cant let go of big starting hands. AA should also be played very aggressively, if theres a raise with a caller or two you can typically just auto ship, yes you’re more likely to win a smaller hand with no showdown – but this isn’t a bad thing because the less  gamble in a DoN the better(that is a key point in becoming a winning DoN player.)

Late stage plays:

A general rule for calling an all in in poker is to think about if you’re getting the right odds. In a DoN this isn’t necessarily the case because you don’t want to gamble. Heres some percentage rules you should think about if you are playing with an average chip stack. My examples are assuming the game starts with 1500 chips each

In a 4max game, if there are 3 players left and the blinds are relatively high there is going to be a lot of players going all in to steal the blinds, if you are an average stack it isn’t profitable to call an all in or a near all in with just greater than a 50% chance of winning, even if you magically knew the players cards and know youre ahead it still might not make sense to call an all in. If you are at chip average with what is now 2000 chips you shouldn’t be calling an all in from a player with an equal stack unless you believe you have greater then a 66.6% chance of winning the hand. I typically try not to call unless I believe I have 70% chance to win or great, an example would be.. I would fold 88 if I believed I was against 2 over cards. But I would call with AK if I was against a weaker A such as AQ. The reason for this is that if you are chip average with 3 players left you are going to get ITM and double your buy in 66% of the time, since 2 of the 3 remaining players (all with chip average in this example) make the money. It is not worth risking your stack to win the game in an all in when you could just focus on blind stealing or hoping that the 2 other players get all in against eachother.

In a 6max DoN game with  4 players left, since 3/4 of the players make the money you shouldn’t be calling all in or near all in with chip average unless you have greater than a 75% chance to win the hand.

That goes the same in a 10max DoN on the bubble. If there are 6 players left, 5/6 of the players will make the money and there is a big chance another player will eventually be able to knock somebody out so you shouldn’t be calling an all in without greater than a 84% chance of winning the hand (so basically in a 10max DoN on the bubble with chip average you shouldn’t be calling an all in without AA or maybe KK, and never really with AK at all.)

This is some simple tips to help your ROI at DoN games, and keep your other SNG games from affecting your DoN strategy.

If there is interest in this strategy post there will be more to come.